The Hot Read

Mock Draft 1-8

1. Detroit Lions – Jason Smith, Offensive Tackle, Baylor

Many experts are expecting the Lions to draft Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford, but I don’t see it happening. Lions coach Jim Schwartz saw his Tennessee Titans earn the top seed in the AFC last season with Kerry Collins at quarterback. I think Schwartz will try to build his team by investing heavily in offensive and defensive lineman, bucking the skill-position trend that failed miserably for Matt Millen.

2. St. Louis Rams – Eugene Monroe, Offensive Tackle, Virginia

After cutting Orlando Pace, the Rams are in desperate need for a left tackle. Monroe fits the mold and should provide some stability for St. Louis. The Rams are in a bit of a rebuilding phase after cutting Pace and veteran receiver Torry Holt, so it makes sense to continue the youth movement with a new franchise left tackle.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, Linebacker, Wake Forest

By acquiring Matt Cassel from the Patriots, the Chiefs filled their biggest offseason need before the draft. Curry could start opposite another ex-Patriot, Mike Vrabel, and give Kansas City a pretty impressive pair of outside linebackers.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Georgia

This would be a bit of a surprise if Stafford was taken here, but Seattle needs a better insurance policy than Seneca Wallace behind Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and at 33, is no longer a reliable option under center. Seattle might look at Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree, but the signing of T.J. Houshmanzadeh reduces the need for a wide receiver. Seattle might also entertain some trade offers with this pick, but if they keep it, I expect them to select the team’s quarterback of the future.

5. Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, Wide Receiver, Texas Tech

The Browns could use help in a number of areas, but receiver has become the biggest need. Given the legal troubles of Donte Stallworth, the trade of Kellen Winslow and the verbal diarrhea of Braylon Edwards, who could also be traded before the season begins, Crabtree would fill an immediate void. The Browns defense isn’t going to be dominant, so their best chance to compete in 2009 is to employ a ball-control offense with a solid running game and a possession receiver like Crabtree. After Crabtree, look for the Browns to address their pass rush in Round 2.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Oher, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi

The Bengals have a desperate need for an offensive lineman, but the top two tackles are already off the board in this scenario. Both Michael Oher, who had an unstable home life and some educational struggles growing up, and Alabama’s Andre Smith, he of the floppy man boobs fame, have some question marks. Does Cincinnati roll the dice on either of the two? I think the Bengals will reach a bit to select Oher, shoring up an area of need. The team might also entertain some trade scenarios here, hoping to acquire an extra pick in addition to its target.

7. Oakland Raiders – Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver, Missouri

The Raiders love speed almost as much as criminal records, so this will be a close call between the speedy Maclin and defensive tackle B.J. Raji, who reportedly tested positive for an illegal substance at the NFL Combine. My guess is that the Raiders will pick Maclin in order to get a better return on their healthy investment in quarterback Jamarcus Russell.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – B.J. Raji, Defensive Tackle, Boston College

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio is firmly on the hot seat, so expect Jacksonville to avoid quarterback Mark Sanchez, who could serve as the team’s quarterback of the future. Raji would give the team a replacement for Marcus Stroud, who signed with Buffalo last season. Raji could also help to unleash pass rushers Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, who were drafted last year by Jacksonville. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Raji slide a few more spots, much like Warren Sapp did after his own positive drug test a few years back.

March Madness: Reflections on the First Round

The best two days of the entire year are over. Thursday and Friday’s first-round games have brought the usual upsets and late-game heroics. Here are a few highlights the first two days:

Cinderella:  The biggest upset of them all arrived yesterday when Cleveland State utterly dominated ACC powerhouse Wake Forest, a team that spent part of the season as the nation’s No. 1 team. The Vikings won 84-69 and could win again in Sunday’s game with No. 12 Arizona. No. 11 Dayton also provided a bit of an upset by beating No. 6 West Virginia 68-60. The Flyers could give Kansas all sorts of trouble in the second round.

The Favorites:  Pitt looked absolutely awful in its win over East Tennessee State, giving everyone a glimmer of hope for the elusive 16-seed win. North Carolina looked like the tournament favorite in a lopsided win over Radford and UCONN was dominant as well in a 103-47 win over Chatanooga. Louisville struggled with Morehead State before finishing off a 74-54 victory. Look for the Panthers and Cardinals to win ugly a few more times before the tournament ends.

The Heartbreak:  My Ohio State Buckeyes seemed to throw away every opportunity in a two-overtime loss to No. 9 Siena. Overrated big man B.J. Mullens threw up two critical bricks on late game free throws that killed OSU’s chances. I’m guessing Wake Forest fans are feeling the same sickness this morning. Many people (including my buddy Mike, Whoops!) had the Demon Deacons in the Final Four. Not this year. It’s going to be a long offseason down there in North Carolina.

Overall impressions:  Friday’s excitement followed a rather ho-hum Thursday, giving the tournament a little more mojo heading into the Sweet Sixteen.  The Midwest bracket is shaping up to be pretty interesting with three double-digit seeds (No. 11 Dayton, No. 12 Arizona and No. 13 Cleveland State) still alive. North Carolina’s road to the finals still looks like the easiest path of the top teams. Don’t jump of the Tarheel bandwagon just yet. And if you like defense, make sure to check out the Wisconsin-Xavier game. Both teams play suffocating man-to-man. The first team to 50 points will probably win.

Check back later for another update.

Philadelphia Eagles: Offseason To-Do List

Reports surfaced today that quarterback Donovan McNabb is waiting to see what the Eagles do in free agency before he agrees to a contract extension. McNabb has the right idea. If Philadelphia hopes to return to the NFC Championship game or advance even further, the Eagles need to make some moves this offseason.

Offensive linemen Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are on the way out and the team still - even after all these years - needs to find a quality receiving target. Expect the Eagles to at least consider a contract for free agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Another option is Philadelphia native Marvin Harrison, who should be cut by the Colts within the next few days. The team should also take a look at what figures to be a deep crop of running backs in this year’s draft. Brian Westbrook has had a lot of carries over the past few seasons and isn’t getting any younger. There is enough talent in the draft to find his eventual replacement in Round 2 or even later.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Offseason To-Do List

Phase one of the Steelers offseason tasks started today when tackle Max Starks was given the franchise tag. Many people have a low opinion of Starks - and the rest of the Steelers’ offensive line for that matter - but the reality is the offensive line was good enough to win the Super Bowl. With that in mind, expect Pittsburgh to keep as many players as possible from the championship team. Fellow linemen Willie Colon, Trai Essex and Chris Kemoeatu are also free agents and I would expect the Steelers to at least attempt to re-sign those guys as well.

A few other players, however, could be wearing different uniforms next season. With many cornerbacks being re-signed by their own teams, Bryant McFadden figues to be one of the most sought after free agent cornerbacks available. In addition, receiver Nate Washington may be allowed to leave with Limas Sweed entering his second season.

The Steelers also need to get younger on the offensive and defensive lines and I would expect them to target those areas in the draft. Defensive backs could also be targted in the early rounds of the draft. As the Steelers found out after winning Super Bowl XL, it’s much easier to win one ring than two in a row. They will need to make some smart moves this offseason to have a chance at ring number seven next year.

Baltimore Ravens: Offseason To-Do List

The Ravens probably overachieved this past season and will now face some important decisions before taking the field in 2009. Baltimore has four key free agents, including Mr. Raven, Ray Lewis. Joining Lewis in free agency are Terrell Suggs, linebacker Bart Scott and center Jason Brown. Lewis already said he won’t take a hometown discount, but my guess is Baltimore will back up the money truck for him. Ray-Ray is the team’s identity - and coach, at times - so it’s hard to imagine him walking away from Charm City. However, I do expect Dallas to throw some serious dollars at his feet with a new stadium ready for play.

Terrell Suggs will likely receive the franchise tag and the common assumption has Scott leaving to join former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan with the New York Jets. Brown is a bit of a wild card, but with Chris McAlister being cut, there might be enough money left over to keep the center around. The Ravens line was pretty good last season and Brown deserves some of that credit - and money.

Baltimore could also use another wide receiver and will likely target that position in the draft or free agency. Joe Flacco will need some more weapons to continue his development. The team could also use another cornerback to replace the aging Samari Rolle.

The biggest drama of the offseason, though, will center on those four free agents. For the Ravens, three out of four wouldn’t be bad. But at this point, it’s hard to tell exactly which three will stick around. Stay tuned.

Pre-Snap Read: AFC Championship Game

Is the third time a charm for the Charm City team?

My instincts tell me no. I like Pittsburgh because of its experience, its home-field advantage and just about everything else. The only thing that might be harder than beating a team three times in one season (precisely what the Steelers will have to do) is going into Pittsburgh with a rookie quarterback and winning in the playoffs.

I keep hearing the Joe Flacco hype and up to this point the kid has earned it. He’s played beyond his years, playing well in the clutch and supplying more poise than I ever thought possible. But I have a feeling that the joyride may end this weekend. Even though�Flacco passed the test in Tennessee, he’s going to face a defense that is a bit more aggressive and unpredictable this weekend. Pittsburgh will blitz more and should apply more pressure than Flacco has felt all season. One mistake could be the difference in this old-school struggle.

Perhaps Ben Roethlisberger will hold the ball too long and end up making that critical mistake. But my instincts tell me it will be Flacco. They always say if something seems to good to be true it usually is. Well, I think Flacco’s performance up to this point in the year has exceeded expectations by a mile. At this point, I don’t think there’s anywhere for him to go but down.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13

Pre-Snap Read: NFC Championship Game

The only team that might be hotter than the Philadelphia Eagles right now is the Arizona Cardinals. Led by an experienced quarterback (Kurt Warner) and an explosive wide receiver (Larry Fitzgerald), the Cardinals present an interesting challenge for the suddenly consistent Eagles.

Philadelphia should be able to control both lines of scrimmage, but Donovan McNabb needs to avoid the big mistake if the Eagles are going to advance to the Super Bowl. Arizona’s defense has been rather opportunistic in the playoffs and you can bet the home crowd will be beyond electric for this unexpected contest. If Andy Reid is smart, he’ll turn this game into a slugfest, running the ball early and often.

I like the Eagles all around as long as they can avoid costly turnovers and penalties.

Is it possible? Could Philly, a city once ravaged by losing, capture the World Series and the Super Bowl in a single season? I think the dream inches a step closer to reality this weekend. Prediction: Eagles 24, Cardinals 17.

A Christmas Wish

Dear Santa-

The biggest travesty in sports isn’t the steroids scandal in baseball. It’s not the conduct of the dogfighters (Mike Vick) and gunshooters (Plaxico Burress) that plague pro football. Nope, all those pale in comparison to the biggest screw job of them all, the lack of a playoff in college football.

Think about it. In an era when you can have just about anything at the click of a mouse, our brain trust at the BCS still hasn’t figured out a way to crown an undisputed national champion. Texas is left outside of the BCS title game despite having an identical record and a win in head-to-head competition with the No. 1 team. It’s bull crap. Texas-sized.

The college presidents and bowl bigwigs have a rolodex of excuses to argue against a playoff, but none of them are valid. In my foolproof playoff system, those excuses will be obliterated. So listen up and jot this down and when you’re finished, make it happen. I’ve been really good this year.

Excuse #1 - The regular season would be less meaningful

Wrong! As I said earlier, Texas beat Oklahoma in regular season play and is now left out of the BCS title game. The only thing that matters in today’s screwy system is the crunching of a few computer numbers. Boise State went undefeated and is playing Texas Christian in the Poinsettia Bowl. The regular season is already meaningless.

A playoff would actually make the regular season mean something again. In my playoff, only the top eight teams would qualify. The BCS Bowls would host the first round games. After that, the higher seeds would get home-field advantage. Thus, the regular season would mean something again.

Penn State’s reward for a one-loss season is a West Coast game with USC. But what if USC had to travel to Happy Valley? Things would be different. With home-field advantage on the line, every regular season game matters more than ever.

The computers or the polls could even determine the top eight teams. With eight teams chosen instead of two, there’s more room for error. Plus, I’d also add the stipulation that any undefeated team gets an automatic bid. This year, both Boise State and Utah would get a shot at the big boys. And guess what? They’ve earned it.

Excuse #2 - The season would be too long.

Wrong again. The same people who tried to feed you this crappy line have been pushing the BCS title game back further each year. Florida and Oklahoma will play for the national championship on January 8. If the BCS bowls were moved back to New Year’s Day where they belong, only four teams, The Final Four, would be playing after Janury 1. If the semifinals were held a week later, only two teams would remain after January 8. Thus, an eight-team college football playoff would extend the season exactly one week. Die BCS, die.

Excuse #3 - The “other” bowls would be meaningless

Guess what? Those other bowl games already are meaningless. Try to name as many of the 34 bowls as you can. I’ll set the over/under at 16. If you’re really advanced, try to name the teams that are playing in the bowls you listed. I’ll set that over/under even lower. This year’s bowl season kicks off with the venerable EagleBank Bowl, featuring two teams who have already played, Navy and Wake Forest, and a bank that may or may not have used federal “bailout” money to host the game. The stability of the bowl games you knew as a kid has been replaced by bowls that appear and disappear faster than the guys who sell purses on the street in New York City.

Even with all their insanity, the lesser bowl games could coexist with a playoff. As long as the games are played in warm places (sorry Boise, my apologies Detroit) and before the eight-team playoff begins, college football fans will go to them. You know why? Step inside the head of your average 20-year-old man, the target audience for many of those bowl games:

“Dude Notre Dame is playing in Hawaii. We’re going. I’ve never kissed a girl in a grass skirt before.”

To paraphrase a voice once heard in an Iowa cornfield, “If you play the game, they will come.” Mow the cornfield Ray. Mow it.

Excuse #4 - We’d lose money on the deal

This is the unspoken excuse, the fear that all those six-win university presidents carry around along with those pockets fattened by bowl sponsorships. As P. Diddy once said, “It’s All About the Benjamins Baby.” (Un-hip translation: Money matters).

But my system would create even more cash, I’m talking Uncle Scrooge in the Ducktales cartoon cash. Excuding the title game, which already exists, my 8-team playoff would create three more games. That’s three more television broadcasts. Three more oportunities to sell about 80,000 tickets at a hefty price. And three more chances to charge fans $5 for a hot dog and $4 for a Coke (or Pepsi, depending on whichever brand pays for exclusive rights to pour soda at playoff games.  I’m always thinking). It all adds up to a lot more money, which could be split among the teams in the playoffs and those that never made it.

Just for fun, let’s look at which teams would compete in my playoff this year (using the AP Poll and my undefeated stipulations): No. 1 Oklahoma would play No. 8 Boise State in a rematch of the Fiesta Bowl classic from a few years back. No. 2 Florida would play Utah in the Urban Meyer Bowl. No. 3 Texas would play Penn State. And Alabama would face USC. Those games would be electric and that’s just the first round. Imagine Penn State heading to the Swamp to play Florida in round two. Imagine USC facing Oklahoma in the Final Four. Who knows who would win it all? It’s a dream scenario. And for now, that’s all it is.

So please Santa Claus, if you’re listening, send me a president who wants a college playoff (Hmmmmm…). Send me a big, state school with an obnoxious fan base that has been royally screwed by the BCS (Hmmmm…..). And send me the bearded guy from the Oxi-Clean commercials to argue incessantly about the million uses for my “can’t miss” playoff (”…and it even sharpens those old knives…”)

I guess two out of three ain’t bad.

Merry Christmas.

Late Hits: Second Guessing Sunday’s Games

Pittsburgh 33, New England 10: Even though Tom Brady was on the sidelines, a 23-point win at New England is still pretty impressive. Many people think the Steelers are poised for another early playoff exit like last season, but in this year’s watered-down AFC anything is possible. The Steelers’ mix of power running and stubborn defense should give them a chance to win every game in December in beyond. Their chances will get even better if they can somehow secure home-field advantage deep into the playoffs. Jerome Harrison added another two sacks to his total and should get some serious consideration for Defensive Player of the Year.

Baltimore 34, Cincinnati 3: If you need any more proof why defense rules in the NFL, examine this game. Baltimore has been one of the more successful franchises in the past decade, while Cincinnati has remained mired in mediocrity or worse. The Ravens have built their team around a defense, while Cincinnati went the offensive route. Guess who’s doing better this season?

Joe Flacco continues to improve and is starting to show signs that he will be able to win games for Baltimore instead of merely not losing them. This Ravens team continues to overachieve and now seems destined to grab a playoff spot. Indianapolis might be the best team in the NFL right now, but the Ravens should be able to secure the other Wild Card spot if they can’t catch Pittsburgh. You would have to think most of the Ravens are ecstatic about their 8-4 record considering the uncertainty they faced at the quarterback position when the season began.

A Pigskin Thanksgiving…

With the exception of the Detroit Lions, almost every NFL team has something to be thankful for. Here’s a look at why our area teams should be giving thanks on Turkey Day.

Pittsburgh (8-3): Because Ben Roethlisberger is still alive. Despite inconsistent play by the offensive line and a number of hits, Big Ben is still ticking. Maybe his new nickname should be Timex because he takes a licking and…you know the rest. The Steelers also have to be content to be atop the AFC North 11 games into the season. If Pittsburgh can play well down the stretch, the Steelers might get a home playoff game, even in a season where they haven’t played their best football.

Baltimore (7-4): Because the Kyle Boller era is finally over. The Ravens have found a franchise quarterback (Joe Flacco) and should make the playoffs despite being overlooked in most of the offseason predictions. Baltimore also got a gift from AFC North rival Cincinnati, who released veteran tackle Willie Anderson before the season, just in time for the Ravens to pick him up. Anderson has had a solid and healthy season and is giving the Ravens some quality play and leadership on the front line.

Philadelphia (5-5): Because Donovan McNabb isn’t out of town just yet. McNabb might be struggling mightily this season, but in my opinion, it’s much better to have a franchise quarterback past his prime than no franchise quarterback at all (see: Baltimore, Kyle Boller years). My guess is that if the Eagles had gotten Randy Moss or some other big-play receiver, McNabb would be having a much better season. Instead, he’s doing his best to throw to rookie DeSean Jackson, Hank Baskett and a somewhat healthy Kevin Curtis. Could Peyton Manning even do that well with that crew? I have my doubts. Now, McNabb and his head coach seem destined for the exit. And my guess is that McNabb heads home to Chicago next year and makes the Eagles wish he never left.